Stories in topic "Supply/Production"
Olduvai Theory: Toward Re-Equalizing the World Standard of Living - Richard Duncan
Posted by Nate Hagens on July 3, 2009 - 10:22am
Topic: Supply/Production
Tags: geodestinies, olduvai, richard duncan, walter youngquist [list all tags]
On a side note, the paper Richard Duncan wrote with Walter Youngquist in 1999 (when oil prices were in $10-$15 range and stock markets were at all time highs) predicting a 2007 world oil peak was not only prescient and ahead of its time using oil forecasting heuristics, but was part of the core readings from 2003 that caused me to leave the Wall St path to study resource depletion full time.
(I encourage those who have not done so to read it: Encircling the Peak of World Oil Production).

Figure 5. Toward Re-Equalizing the World Standards of Living
Risk Assessments: Playing the "What If?" Game
Posted by Robert Rapier on July 2, 2009 - 10:15am
Topic: Supply/Production
Tags: climate change, global warming, greenhouse gas, peak oil [list all tags]
I spend a lot of time playing "What if?" It is an important aspect of my line of work, but we all do this to some extent. I do it when I am driving - "What if that car at the next intersection pulls out in front of me?" - when I am working "What if that high pressure line ruptures?" - and at home - "What if I wake up and find the house is on fire?" I also spend a lot of time pondering the question "What if there are energy shortages in the near future?"
When we do this, we are generally trying to understand the potential consequences of various responses to a given situation. This sort of exercise is a form of risk assessment, and it is a very important tool for making decisions about events that could impact the future. Sometimes the consequences are minor. If I choose not to take an umbrella to work and it rains, there is probably a small consequence. If I choose to pass a car on a blind hill, the consequence may be severe, and may extend to other people.
In this essay I will explore the implications of the question: "What if I am wrong on peak oil or global warming?"
The Net Hubbert Curve: What Does It Mean?
Posted by David Murphy on June 22, 2009 - 10:30am in The Oil Drum: Net Energy
Topic: Supply/Production
Tags: cutler cleveland, david murphy, eroi, gross energy, m. king hubbert, net energy, net hubbert, original, peak oil, positive feedback [list all tags]
Cutler Cleveland of Boston University has reported that the EROI of oil and gas extraction in the U.S. has decreased from 100:1 in the 1930’s to 30:1 in the 1970’s to roughly 11:1 as of 2000 (Figure 1). But beyond the fact that society receives currently around 11 barrels of oil for every 1 barrel that it spends getting that oil, What does this mean?

Figure 1. Plot of three estimations of EROI for U.S. oil and gas.
Oilwatch Monthly June 2009
Posted by Rembrandt on June 16, 2009 - 10:07am in The Oil Drum: Europe
Topic: Supply/Production
Tags: demand, eia, iea, non-opec, oilwatch, opec, original, stocks total liquids, supply, world production [list all tags]
The June 2009 edition of Oilwatch Monthly can be downloaded at this weblink (PDF, 2.0 MB, 28 pp).

The Oilwatch Monthly is a newsletter that is available free of charge with the latest data on oil supply, demand, oil stocks, spare capacity and exports. Readers who want to receive the Oilwatch Monthly in their e-mail box each month can subscribe at this weblink, by filling in their first name, last name, email adress and selecting Oilwatch Monthly in the mailing list box. To finalize your subscription push the 'inschrijven' button below the form.
A summary and latest graphics below the fold.
Aleklett: Australia highly vulnerable to oil shortages
Posted by Big Gav on June 11, 2009 - 5:08pm in The Oil Drum: Australia/New Zealand
Topic: Supply/Production
Tags: australia, kjell aleklett, peak oil [list all tags]
ASPO International president, Professor Kjell Aleklett of the Global Energy Systems group at Uppsala University has been in Australia over the past week, presenting lectures in Adelaide and Sydney on peak oil.
ASPO Australia has copies of 2 presentations done in Adelaide - "Energy: The Challenge To Sustainability" (ppt) and "Peak oil, peak gas and peak coal: Setting the scene for future supply problems" (ppt).
Five Easy Leases: Ghawar's Discovery Wells
Posted by JoulesBurn on June 6, 2009 - 11:08am
Topic: Supply/Production
Tags: ghawar, satellite, saudi arabia [list all tags]
A few months back, Saudi Aramco commissioned a story about the first wells in the Ghawar oil field in Saudi Arabia, the world's largest.
With the title "Ghawar's Magnificent Five", it was published first on the Saudi Aramco website but has subsequently appeared elsewhere.
Saudi Aramco later published the same article along with the companion piece "Still Going Strong" (subtitled "57-year-old super-giant Ghawar oil field productive as ever") in the Fall 2008 issue of SA Dimensions magazine, also available on their website1.
"Magnificent Five" is the newly minted moniker2 for the group of discovery wells, one for each of the five major production areas of Ghawar: 'Ain Dar, Shedgum, Uthmaniyah, Hawiyah, and Haradh.
These articles are remarkable in that Saudi Aramco rarely reveals production details for specific wells in Ghawar, but something in this myth-building exercise is amiss -- both in the consistency of the numbers provided and their use as indicators for the state of the wells and the overall field.
In this article, I will examine the data provided for these wells and cross check with other available information including satellite imagery available within Google Earth. There is definitely more to the story, and this uncut version is actually more interesting than what Saudi Aramco has released to theaters.
1http://www.saudiaramco.com. Click Newsroom/Publications/Dimensions.
2The wells' new nickname invokes the grandeur of another movie: The Magnificent Seven. It is noteworthy, though, that most of the seven died prematurely.
Natural Gas Revisited
Posted by Gail the Actuary on June 3, 2009 - 8:16am
Topic: Supply/Production
It seems like the question I get asked more than any other one is "What are the prospects for natural gas?"
I wrote a post in September, 2008, saying that it looked like there was a reasonable chance natural gas production could be ramped up. I still think that is true. In fact, through March 2009, US natural gas production is up, although it is not rising as rapidly as in 2008. The dips in production in September 2005 and September 2008 are from drops in production due to hurricanes.

What has happened since September 2008 is a serious drop in prices, because demand did not rise to match the new higher production. Such a drop in prices makes the price too low for nearly all producers.
Book Review: Why Your World Is About to Get a Whole Lot Smaller
Posted by Robert Rapier on May 25, 2009 - 9:38am
Topic: Supply/Production
Tags: book review, carbon tax, global warming, jeff rubin [list all tags]
Jeff Rubin - the former chief economist at CIBC World Markets - has always struck me as someone who "gets it." I have seen him do a number of interviews, both on television and in print - and he consistently sounds the alarm on peak oil. He understands very well that cheap oil is the lifeblood of the global economy, yet this is an era that will soon come to an end. His new book - Why Your World Is About to Get a Whole Lot Smaller: Oil and the End of Globalization
Oilwatch Monthly May 2009
Posted by Rembrandt on May 22, 2009 - 9:37am in The Oil Drum: Europe
Topic: Supply/Production
Tags: demand, eia, iea, non-opec, oilwatch, opec, original, stocks total liquids, supply, world production [list all tags]
The May 2009 edition of Oilwatch Monthly can be downloaded at this weblink (PDF, 2.0 MB, 28 pp).

The Oilwatch Monthly is a newsletter that is available free of charge with the latest data on oil supply, demand, oil stocks, spare capacity and exports. Readers who want to receive the Oilwatch Monthly in their e-mail box each month can subscribe at this weblink, by filling in their first name, last name, email adress and selecting Oilwatch Monthly in the mailing list box. To finalize your subscription push the 'inschrijven' button below the form.
A summary and latest graphics below the fold.
US Natural Gas - May 09
Posted by Gail the Actuary on May 20, 2009 - 10:31am
Topic: Supply/Production
Tags: natural gas [list all tags]
Natural gas seems like it should have huge potential, but the prices remain too low to encourage additional production. In this post we will look at a few recent graphs and their implications.
This is a graph of US natural gas production. One can see that production increased by about 8% during 2008, but there was a huge dip as the result of the September hurricanes. Production in the first part of 2009 is up a little under 4% above production in the first part of 2008. (All graphs are based on EIA data.)



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